by Tommy Gimler
Let’s be honest. If you put your entire unborn child’s community college fund behind our MLB over/under predictions this year, you’re a fucking idiot. Now is as good of a time as any to remind you that most of this blog is written by a comedian who is addicted to sports and internet porn.
But unlike most sports publications, when we spend a good chunk of the spring opening our pieholes and making predictions on America’s third-favorite sport, we take the time to go into detail on just how Taylor Swift-awful those predictions were. And the answer is: compared to everybody else, actually not that bad.
We scoured the world wide looking for writers and sports mags with enough hair on their fat asses to predict every MLB team’s 2013 record. Nobody at the four-letter had the stones to do it, although every one of their baseball writers did give their generic division winners predictions. And even with something as simple as that, analyst/dork Tim Kurkjian only picked one correct division winner. But even my grandma predicted the Tigers would win the AL Central, and she’s been dead for eight years.
Sports Illustrated had a very in-depth MLB preview this year, and for the amount of time, money, and sportswriting “talent” put into it, it wound up being pure pig shit. The “Baseball Guru” Craig Tomarkin actually didn’t know shit about baseball this year. And after simulating each team’s 2013 schedule 50,000 times, PredictionMachine.com finished with the same record as we did (15-14-1) in regard to over/unders. Our method? You guessed it. Thousands of ounces of beer and countless minutes logged watching two mature lesbians scissor each other on what used to be a clean couch.
Here’s how it all played out:
AL EAST
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Tampa Bay 91-71 (over 86 wins) 1st – Boston 97-65
2nd – Toronto 88-74 (over 86.5 wins) 2nd – Tampa Bay 91-71
3rd – Boston 84-78 (over 79.5 wins) t-3rd – New York – 85-77
4th – Baltimore 82-80 (over 76.5 wins) t-3rd – Baltimore 85-77
5th – New York 75-87 (under 86.5 wins) 5th – Toronto – 74-88
O/U record: 4-1
AL Central
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Detroit 99-63 (over 90 wins) 1st – Detroit 93-69
2nd – Cleveland 83-79 (over 77.5 wins) 2nd – Cleveland 92-70
3rd – Chicago 81-81 (over 80.5 wins) 3rd – Kansas City 86-76
4th – Kansas City 77-85 (under 79 wins) 4th – Minnesota 66-96
5th – Minnesota 65-97 (over 64.5 wins) 5th – Chicago 63-99
O/U record: 3-2
AL West
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Los Angeles 95-67 (over 90 wins) 1st – Oakland 96-66
2nd – Seattle 89-73 (over 76.5 wins) 2nd – Texas 91-71
3rd – Texas 86-76 (under 87 wins) 3rd – Los Angeles – 78-84
4th – Oakland 82-80 (under 83 wins) 4th – Seattle 71-91
5th – Houston 47-115 (under 59.5 wins) 5th – Houston 51-111
O/U record: 1-4
American League Over/Under Record: 8-7
NL East
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Washington 96-66 (over 90 wins) 1st – Atlanta 96-66
2nd – Atlanta 90-72 (over 86 wins) 2nd – Washington 86-76
3rd – Philadelphia 89-73 (over 81.5 wins) 3rd – New York – 74-88
4th – Miami 71-91 (over 64.5 wins) 4th – Philadelphia 73-89
5th – New York 65-97 (under 74 wins) 5th – Miami – 62-100
O/U record: 1-3-1
NL Central
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Cincinnati 90-72 (over 88.5 wins) 1st – St. Louis 97-65
2nd – St. Louis 85-77 (under 85.5 wins) 2nd – Pittsburgh 94-68
3rd – Milwaukee 78-84 (under 79.5 wins) 3rd – Cincinnati 90-72
4th – Pittsburgh 75-87 (under 79 wins) 4th – Milwaukee 74-88
5th – Chicago 67-95 (under 72 wins) 5th – Chicago 66-96
O/U record: 3-2
NL West
DUD Predictions Actual Final Standings
1st – Los Angeles 92-70 (over 90 wins) 1st – Los Angeles 92-70
2nd – Arizona 88-74 (over 81.5 wins) 2nd – Arizona 81-81
3rd – San Francisco 85-77 (under 86 wins) t-3rd – San Francisco 76-86
4th – San Diego 77-85 (over 74.5 wins) t-3rd – San Diego 76-86
5th – Colorado 68-94 (under 71.5 wins) 5th – Colorado 74-88
O/U record: 3-2
National League Over/Under Record: 7-7-1
Over/Under Standings Amongst The “Experts”
Doug Mead (Bleacher Report): 18-10-2
Baseball Prospectus: 14-10-6
CAIRO Projections (heavy use of sabermetrics): 16-13-1
The DUD: 15-14-1
PredictionMachine.com: 15-14-1
Lewie Pollis (SB Nation): 14-14-2
Sports Illustrated: 13-15-2
Michael Luchies (Yahoo!): 13-16-1
TeamRankings.com: 12-17-1
BaseballGuru.com: 11-17-2
Number of Correct Division Winners
Karl Ravech (ESPN): 4
Jon Heyman (CBS Sports): 3
BaseballGuru.com: 3
The DUD: 2
Buster Olney (ESPN): 2
Michael Luchies (Yahoo!): 2
Sports Illustrated: 1
Matt Snyder (CBS Sports): 1
Doug Mead (Bleacher Report): 1
Tim Kurkjian (ESPN): 1