by Tommy Gimler
The Atlantis Casino in Reno might be as irrelevant as Mindy McCready’s life 364 days of the year, but for the last seven years, they have been the first sportsbook to release Major League Baseball’s over/under win totals. So for that, they can plow my sister.
This year, the Atlantis has no team winning more than 90 games. The Dodgers, Nationals, and Tigers are all listed at 90 each, but everybody else falls short of the mark. Last year, eight teams finished with over 90 wins, and the Rays finished with 90 right on the head.
But before you start thinking that it would be profitable to just take the over across the board, the number of overs and unders to come in at the end of last year was exactly the same (15). And for as good as teams like the Dodgers, Nationals, and Tigers seem on paper, the Astros, Marlins, and Twins are equally as dog shit as advertised, maybe worse.
Here’s who we like in 2013:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim OVER 89.5 Wins
Last year’s Angels squad fell 1/2 of a win shy of making us a perfect 4 for 4 with our predictions, and that team didn’t open the season with Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton on their roster. In the tough AL West last year, the Angels finished a respectable 30-27. This year, they get 19 division games against the Houston Astros, a team whose roster looks more like a list of illegals detained at the border than a list of Major League ballplayers. The team brought in Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, and Joe Blanton during the offseason to join Weaver and Wilson in the starting rotation. All five guys could finish with an ERA over 4.50, and it still wouldn’t matter with a lineup that includes Trout, Aybar, Hamilton, Pujols, and Trumbo.
Washington Nationals OVER 90 Wins
Did I miss something during the offseason? Is the Atlantis Casino fucking with us? Last year’s Nationals squad finished with 98 wins, a number that would have been even higher if their closer(s) wasn’t a bigger of a piece of pig shit than Taylor Swift. To solve that problem, the Nats brought in Rafael Soriano and his 42 saves with the Yankees last year. Then they brought in Dan Haren to be their #4 starter. Look, when Dan Haren is your #4, you have a rotation that is deeper than Jennifer Love Hewitt’s birth canal, and that thing has to be like throwing a hot dog down a hallway by now. With the addition of Denard Span in centerfield, this lineup is even more potent, like Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie potent, this year than it was last year. And while they have no games against the Astros this year, they do have 19 against the Miami Marlins and 19 more against the New York Mets.
Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 79 Wins
The Pittsburgh Pukes haven’t won more than 79 games since 1992, and I’m not about to put any money down that says they’ll do it this year. The Pirates are like your fat buddy who says he hooked up with a broad, any kind of broad, last weekend. You won’t believe it until you see it. They reached 79 wins last year thanks in part by defeating the Houston Astros in 12 of 17 games. This year, they only get Houston for 3. Against the rest of the NL Central, they were 27-37, and they have 76 games against those teams this year. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are a decent 1-2 starting pitching combo, but Burnett was pretty brutal last year when it mattered most. From August on, he won just three games. After a solid start, James McDonald put up an ERA of 5.97 in July, 4.45 in August, and 12.75 in September. And there are question marks surrounding the health of Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens this spring. Without a top notch pitching staff, the Bucs just don’t have enough offensive firepower to win games with just their bats. Sure, Andrew McCutchen is an MVP in waiting and Starling Marte has a chance to be something special, but the rest of the team is made up of guys you would have a hard time classifying as anything other than turds.
Houston Astros UNDER 59.5 Wins
The Houston Astros are a bigger joke than Chief Keef. Since the 1982 season, only the 2004-2006 Kansas City Royals teams have compiled three consecutive seasons with 62 wins or less (not including the strike seasons of ’94 and ’95). By the time 2013 is over, you’ll be able to say that the Astros are the only team in that time span to finish with three straight seasons with under 60 wins. We went back as far as 2005, and no team has ever had a projected win total of under 60 games. Well, until now. After notching 56 wins in 2011 and 55 victories last year, the Astros are poised to be even worse this year. For starters, with the move to the AL West, gone are the fifteen to sixteen games against Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee. Instead, their schedule features 57 games against the A’s, Rangers, Angels, teams who finished last year with 94, 93, and 89 wins respectively. Their best offensive weapon is Jose Altuve, and he hit .290 last year with 7 home runs, 80 runs, 33 stolen bases, and 37 RBI. Left fielder Chris Carter strikes out 38% of the time. Carlos Pena has hit under .200 in two of the last three seasons, and his hasn’t hit higher than .230 since 2008. And as bad as their hitting is, the Astros’ pitching is even worse. No pitcher in their projected 2013 starting rotation finished 2012 with a record over .500, and three of them finished with an ERA over 5.00. In fact, only Lucas Harrell (who the fuck is Lucas Harrell?) finished with an ERA under 4.65. The question here isn’t whether or not the 2013 Astros are going to amass 60 wins but whether or not they’ll finish the year with 43 victories, the lowest amount ever for a 162-game season.
Here is the entire list of over/unders for the 2013 MLB season:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5
- Atlanta Braves 86
- Baltimore Orioles 76.5
- Boston Red Sox 79.5
- Chicago Cubs 72
- Chicago White Sox 80.5
- Cincinnati Reds 88.5
- Cleveland Indians 77.5
- Colorado Rockies 71.5
- Detroit Tigers 90
- Houston Astros 59.5
- Kansas City Royals 79
- Los Angeles Angels 89.5
- Los Angeles Dodgers 90
- Miami Marlins 64.5
- Milwaukee Brewers 79.5
- Minnesota Twins 64.5
- New York Mets 74
- New York Yankees 86.5
- Oakland Athletics 83
- Philadelphia Phillies 81.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates 79
- San Diego Padres 74.5
- San Francisco Giants 86
- Seattle Mariners 76.5
- St. Louis Cardinals 85.5
- Tampa Bay Rays 86
- Texas Rangers 87
- Toronto Blue Jays 86.5
- Washington Nationals 90